Taiwan’s presidential election on January 13 will shape the future of the self-ruled democratic island, from relations with China and the US to domestic issues that affect the livelihood of its 23 million people.
Opinion polls are currently led by Vice-President William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), followed by Hou Yu-ih of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). The winner of the presidential vote will succeed DPP’s outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, who became the island’s first female leader in 2016 and won re-election in 2020 but is constitutionally barred from a third term.
Voters will also decide all 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament. Latest polls suggest that no single party is likely to win a majority, currently held by the DPP.
If Lai wins on Saturday, it will be a historic third term in power for the ruling DPP, dubbed the green camp. Since the island began holding democratic elections in 1996, the presidency has rotated between the KMT, the blue camp, and the DPP.
In the only televised presidential debate – held last Saturday – the three candidates clashed over their positions on relations with China. Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province to be united with mainland China, by force if necessary.
Hou and Ko took turns to challenge Lai and the DPP’s China policy, which they said had strained cross-strait relations and threatened peace. Lai rebutted the accusations and said his opponents’ approaches would fail to protect Taiwan’s democracy.
Ahead of the polls, HKFP takes a brief look at the three presidential candidates, and breaks down the parliamentary election.
William Lai Ching-te (DPP)
Lai, the frontrunner, is currently vice-president under Tsai. Four years ago, he unsuccessfully challenged her in the presidential primary, later becoming her running mate. Tsai and Lai eventually beat their main rival, the pro-Beijing Han Kuo-yu of the KMT, taking a record 57.1 per cent or 8.17 million votes.
The 64-year-old chairperson of the ruling DPP has named Hsiao Bi-khim, 52, who until November last year was Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the US, as his running mate.
In Saturday’s debate, Lai reiterated that he would follow Tsai’s path on the relationship with mainland China and maintain the status quo, protecting Taiwan and keeping the peace in the Indo-Pacific.
“The world is watching Taiwanese people’s choice between democracy and autocracy, the international community knows very well that only Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim could stand shoulder-to-shoulder and walk with democratic allies,” he said in Mandarin.
Lai, who began his political career as a legislator and later became mayor of the southern city of Tainan, described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence” when he served as Tsai’s premier between 2017 and 2019. He later added that “Taiwan is already an independent sovereign nation called the Republic of China… there is no need to further declare Taiwan independence.”
Lai’s stance had drawn criticism from both China and his opposition. In November, Beijing called Lai and Hsiao the “independence duo” who would endanger peace across the strait. Last Saturday, his rivals Hou and Ko also took aim at Lai’s position on Beijing-Taipei issues.
“The sovereignty of Taiwan belongs to the 23 million Taiwanese people, not to [China],” Lai said in response to a question from Ko. “The Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to one another, that’s the meaning of Taiwan independence.”
Lai’s political platform also includes plans for more subsidised housing as well as increasing wages and reducing taxes.
Hou Yu-ih (KMT)
Hou, presidential candidate of the major opposition KMT and mayor of the northern New Taipei City, was formerly the director general of the National Police Agency. He gained attention when he was re-elected mayor in the city that surrounds the capital in 2022, beating his DPP rival by a landslide. That year the KMT trounced the ruling DPP in local elections, leading to Tsai’s resignation as party head.
The 66-year-old has tailed Lai closely in most recent polls. He has named Jaw Shaw-kong, 73, a former KMT lawmaker and a media personality, as his running mate.
Hou, who originally joined the KMT in the 1970s under the dictatorship of Chiang Kai-shek, had indicated that he opposed Taiwan independence and One Country, Two Systems, a governing framework that China imposed on Hong Kong and Macau and had touted as a way for Taiwan to achieve unification.
“No Taiwan independence, no One Country, Two Systems,” Hou said during Saturday’s debate. “Steadfastly defend freedom and the democratic system. Taiwan’s future is decided by its 23 million residents.”
But Hou was challenged by his rivals over his – and the KMT’s – position on having warmer ties with China despite Beijing’s increasing bellicosity. Hou fended off the criticism by stressing that he was only pushing to restore cross-strait dialogue, which Beijing had halted with Tsai’s administration.
Hou has indicated his support for the “1992 consensus” – a tacit agreement between Beijing and the KMT that both Taipei and Beijing are part of a single China, although each can have its own interpretation.
Tsai, however, has rejected the concept, saying in 2019 that “we have never accepted the 1992 consensus” in response to a speech by China’s leader Xi Jinping.
Hou insisted that cross-strait communication based on the 1992 consensus was the only way to mitigate the risks of a war, but also said Taiwan must strengthen its military capacity to deter a possible invasion by China.
Domestically, Hou has proposed stepping up government subsidies for youth in terms of higher education and housing.
Ko Wen-je (TPP)
Ko, the former mayor of Taipei City who founded the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in 2019, has branded himself as a “third force” and appealed to voters unhappy with both the DPP and the KMT. He has teamed up with Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying, 45, a TPP legislator and the daughter of a Taiwanese billionaire, to run in the election.
The 64-year-old was a surgeon for three decades before serving as mayor of the capital between 2014 and 2022. While Ko previously supported the DPP’s presidential campaign – including Tsai’s – he moved away from the ruling party in recent years, accusing it of escalating cross-strait tensions and failing to solve bread-and-butter domestic issues.
Ko said during Saturday’s debate that the long-term domination of Taiwanese politics by the DPP and KMT had culminated in “fractures across races, communities, and the nation.” He vowed to bring about “social harmony, political reconciliation, and cross-strait peace” for Taiwan.
However, Ko came under attack – mainly by Lai – for his expression that “both sides of the strait are one family” in 2015. The former mayor defended himself by saying that it was only a “friendly gesture,” and interactions across the strait must be based on the premise that “Taiwan’s democratic system and way of life are protected.”
Ko added that there was no alternative for Taiwan other than “maintaining the status quo.” The former mayor said the self-ruled island must find its own position – and not be a pawn in US-China rivalry.
In November, the opposition candidates attempted to form an alliance to increase their chances against Lai. But negotiations collapsed on live television as Hou and Ko could not agree on who should top the joint ticket.
On the campaign trail, Ko has largely honed in on social welfare policies to address the high cost of housing, low wages, and the burden of elderly care in an ageing population. Despite trailing in the polls, Ko has succeeded in attracting young people to his rallies and garnered a huge following for his social media accounts.
The Legislative Yuan
Voters on January 13 will also cast their ballots for all 113 seats of the Legislative Yuan, the island’s parliament.
According to election rules, 73 legislators are “district-based,” elected first-past-the-post in constituencies based on geographical districts.
Another 34 seats are elected by political party-list on a second ballot, which will determine how many seats each party gets under a proportional representation system based on nationwide votes. The election rules also require that, for each party, at least half of the legislators elected on this ballot must be female.
The remaining six seats are chosen by indigenous people who account for 2.5 per cent of the island’s population, according to official figures.
According to the Central Election Commission, 34.5 per cent of the candidates vying for a seat on the “district-based” and the indigenous ballots are female, the highest since 2008 when the current electoral system was introduced.
Polls show that no single party is likely to obtain a majority, meaning that whoever wins the presidential election will still have to seek a political coalition in parliament.
Type of Story: Explainer
Provides context or background, definition and detail on a specific topic.
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