Hongkongers have a net optimism rate of zero percentage points for the city’s development in the year ahead, an annual survey has found, a pessimism that one commentator said was fuelled by economic woes and unchecked governance.
The Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (PORI) on Wednesday released the results of its 2023 review and 2024 forecast survey. PORI interviewed 501 Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above in mid-December, asking them to evaluate whether they felt satisfied about the city’s development in the year past and their projections for 2024, as well as assessing their happiness and prospects.
Results showed that while 40 per cent of respondents were optimistic about the city’s development in 2024, 40 per cent said they were pessimistic, giving a net optimism rate of 0 percentage points. That marked “a very significant drop” compared with last year, when a net optimism rate of 28 percentage points was recorded, Adam Yuen, a research executive at PORI, said during Wednesday’s briefing.
“The very simple picture is that people are very pessimistic about the future of Hong Kong in 2024, on the whole,” Robert Chung, president and CEO of PORI, said in response to a question from HKFP.
But respondents had a “less pessimistic” assessment of their personal prospects, with 47 per cent saying they expected personal development to improve next year, versus 22 per cent who expected a setback.
“When you ask them about how they feel about themselves, how they cope with [the outlook], they seem to be less pessimistic,” Chung added.
Reviewing 2023, 46 per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with the city’s development, outnumbering the 35 per cent who said they were satisfied. But, on a personal level, 44 per cent indicated that they were happy, versus 30 per cent who said otherwise.
Veteran journalist and political commentator Johnny Lau said that the results reflected a “divergence” in Hongkongers’ sentiment. While many people found the city’s prospect to be pessimistic, they were able to adjust their mood and feel happy for themselves, Lau said in Cantonese.
“[The divergence] showed that while the external environment was uncontrollable, people demonstrated resilience by adjusting their personal feelings,” he said.
Lau said that the appraisal of the city’s future was tied to residents’ concerns about the current economic woes, which included a shortfall of financial reserves and a struggling stock market.
He also said that people were unconvinced by the authorities’ narrative that “the basis of economic development in Hong Kong remained solid” amid a dim GDP growth estimate.
Lau added that people were discontent with unchecked and unclear public spending, highlighting the massive government-led campaign ahead of the “patriots-only” District Council race, held on December 10, to boost voter turnout.
“How much was spent during the District Council elections, or the [2021] Legislative Election, or during the pandemic? Often the government only provides a gross estimate without specifying the actual spending,” he said.
“One of the objectives of the overhauled electoral system was to supervise government expenditure,” he added. “Yet, residents feel that the government often goes unchecked.”
Survey frequency
Chung also announced during Wednesday’s briefing that the frequency of PORI’s telephone surveys would be reduced from once a month to every two months, while the frequency of online panel surveys would be increased to once a month, citing concerns over costs.
The veteran pollster said the decision was made to allocate more resources to analysing past data and its “public sentiment index,” a statistical measure of residents’ feelings towards political, economic, and livelihood issues to gauge public opinion over time.
He added that PORI had to consider “a wide range” of factors in its operations, including the political atmosphere of Hong Kong, and the institute would continue its polling work within the legal framework.
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