A preliminary poll on the results of the Legislative Council election has projected that the pan-democrats and localists may win 17 seats, meaning they could lose their veto power on some bills.

The results of the poll, conducted by the University of Hong Kong’s public opinion programme (HKUPOP) and commissioned by pro-democracy political group Power for Democracy, was released on Thursday.

legislative council
File photo: HKFP.

Over 5,000 Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong registered voters were interviewed between June 20 and July 8. The goal of the survey is to “gauge registered voters’ views on the Legislative Council Election before the nomination period, and provide data for civil society.”

Although the candidate lists were provided by Power for Democracy, HKUPOP said they conducted the survey independently without outside interference.

Preliminary results

In the Hong Kong Island constituency, which has six seats on the legislature, the New People Party’s Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee tops the list with the highest level of support at 21.4 per cent, followed by the Civic Party’s Tanya Chan Suk-chong at 16.2 per cent. Ricky Wong Wai-kay, who is running as an independent, comes third.

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Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee of the NPP. File Photo: Stand News.

The Civic Party’s list containing Jeremy Tam Man-ho and Alan Leong Kah-kit is projected to have the most support in Kowloon East, taking first place with 18.4 per cent. The pro-Beijing DAB party’s list is second, followed by the Democratic Party’s Wu Chi-wai, The Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions’ list, and solicitor Paul Tse Wai-chun. The constituency has five seats on the Legislative Council.

The Civic Party’s Claudia Mo Man-ching comes first in the Kowloon West constituency with 15 per cent, the DAB’s Ann Chiang Lai-wan places second and pro-Beijing BPA’s Priscilla Leung Mei-fun is third. The Democratic Party’s Helena Wong Pik-wan, Raymond Wong Yuk-man and Youngspiration’s Yau Wai-ching follow. The constituency has six seats.

claudia mo
Claudia Mo Man-ching. File photo: HKFP.

In the New Territories East constituency, where there are nine seats up for grab, the Civic Party’s Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu wins the most support with 17.4 per cent; the Liberal Party’s list with Dominic Lee Tsz-king and James Tien Pei-chun is second with 8.4 per cent. Hong Kong Indigenous’ Edward Leung Tin-kei follows close behind with 8.3 per cent, and the DAB’s Elizabeth Quat is fourth with 8 per cent.

New Territories West, also with nine seats, sees New People Party’s Michael Tien Puk-sun topping the list with 14 per cent. Civic Party’s Kwok Ka-ki and Labour Party’s Lee Cheuk-yan place second and third, followed by the FTU’s Alice Mak Mei-kuen and the DAB’s Chan Han-pan.

Pan-dems may lose veto power

According to a tally by Apple Daily, based on the predicted results of the poll, pan-democrats and localists will take up 17 seats on the legislature, one less than they currently have. The pro-establishment camp, together with independents Christine Fong Kwok-shan and Ricky Wong Wai-kay, are projected to have 18 seats.

As the pro-democracy camp is unlikely to have a majority in the functional constituencies, losing the majority in the geographical constituencies will mean that they will no longer have veto power on some bills that require support in both.

However, the survey said that as the election is still in its preliminary stages, there will be evident changes to which candidates voters support later on.

Karen is a journalist and writer covering politics and legal affairs in Hong Kong for HKFP. She has also written features on human rights, public space, regional legal developments, social and grassroots activism, and arts & culture. She is a BA and LLB graduate from the University of Hong Kong.